The forecast focuses on the revenue derived from the sales of LPWAN chipsets and modules, as well as the per-device connectivity revenue charged by network operators and service providers. Licensed spectrum LPWAN (L-LPWAN) strategies have come to the fore in the past year, with LTE Cat-M and LTE Cat-NB networks appearing in more and more markets.
Unlicensed spectrum LPWAN (U-LPWAN) is currently dominated by LoRa and Wi-SUN, but the MNOs loom large. Campus and client-based networks are a major opportunity for U-LPWAN, and Riot Research anticipates that there will be a divergence between U-LPWAN and L-LPWAN through the period – with U-LPWAN moving to address use-cases that L-LPWAN cannot.
The report identifies the core use-cases that will drive demand for LPWAN connections, and applies a degree of caution and skepticism to use-cases that lack major channel partners, or markets where demand is yet unproven, outside of a few niche projects. This report follows the major trends and partnerships that vendors have managed to cultivate, while the tendency among other forecasts has been to simply accept the use-cases cited by vendors – instead of thoroughly exploring the viability of the use case and the technology’s ecosystem.
By definition, this report finds that Wi-SUN will become the most successful LPWAN protocol by 2023, leading in connections at 895.3mn across our identified key use-cases. LoRa is projected to achieve second-place, on 589mn, while LTE Cat-NB is expected to reach 516.7mn, with Cat-M on 245mn. Combined, the L-LPWAN variants achieve 761.8mn.
However, in terms of revenue, L-LPWAN is projected to account for the lion’s share - a combined $12bn, or 63.8% of the total $18.84bn projected for LPWAN. LoRa is anticipated to achieve $5.95bn in annual revenues in 2023, by comparison, around 31.59% of the total LPWAN revenue.
The analyst community has over-promised on the potential of certain verticals in the LPWAN market, and under-promised in others. The utility sector is one of the strongest candidates for adoption, and is often overlooked by other forecasts. Similarly, we are very skeptical of the viability for LPWAN to make strong progress in asset tracking, given the use-case’s lack of a need for the ten-year battery life promised by LPWAN technologies.
The Venn diagram for asset tracking devices that need low-power, long-battery life, and low-cost is quite small in the current market, leaving that entire segment in a Catch-22 situation – where the high-value customers opt for a more expensive answer to their problem, and the low-value choices accept compromises and stick with technologies like RFID or Bluetooth, to avoid the per-device connectivity fees.
The core use-cases explored in this forecast are; Fleet Management and Telematics, Wearables, M2M Migration, Smart Grid, Smart City, and Smart Agriculture.
